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Race Win
Understanding How Horses are Conditioned to Win
A horse´s racing history tells a story, and these stories can help you win if you learn to read between the lines. One example involves trainer tactics and using your skill at reading a trainer´s intent to pick a horse with hidden potential.
Playing the Class Game
Horses are conditioned for competition in a number of different ways. Some horses improve when racing against higher-class competitors and are occasionally placed in races where they are outclassed. This happens when a horse has been in the money a number of times, but hasn´t won, or hasn´t won in a while. The horse will usually perform poorly in the higher-class race, but improve in the process. After a drop back to a more appropriate class, this horse that hasn´t done better than third in its last five races wins with energy to spare.
What makes this an interesting scenario to follow in your handicapping is that the big loss in his last race makes the horse look less promising to the casual observer. The odds in his current race are usually long, longer than the horse deserves, and under-valued horses are golden opportunities in handicapping.
Applying Your Strategy
To use this strategy successfully, select a horse that has shown some promise in his next-to-last race. This could be a third place win, a favorable comment, a change in equipment for that race with an improved finishing position; or a notation that he was forced wide, but still managed to make up ground.
The horse´s last race, the losing race, will have been a jump in class in which he performed badly. Limit your selections to horses that are working with a familiar rider and stable, and have had some success at today´s track.
Today´s race should be a drop back to a class at which the horse has been in the money, and at a distance and surface he has mastered. This will not be a long shot wager. If the odds are greater than four-to-one and there isn´t an overwhelming favorite in the race, there´s something else going on, so pass on the wager.
Observing changes in a horse´s racing pattern or a trainer´s approach can lead to a winning handicapping formula. Learning to read the story behind the facts makes thoroughbred horse racing a satisfying and sometimes lucrative pastime.
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www.fourthewin.com
Why is Dale Earnhardt Jr. the favorite to win when he has not won a plate race in five years?
Each individual sports book, and the blog has Dale Earnhardt Jr. as an 8 / 1 favorite to win the race tomorrow. Why is this? He has not won at a track plate in five years, and he just has won a race in three years. Do you know something we do not? Perhaps another Race Set as the 400 2001 Pepsi? Of course I would like to take a look at the plaque that is running morning.
Because the Jr. fans are dying for a win, and think that since he's done this season AVERAGE will win at Talladega. But you are quite reason. When was the last time we won there? Not since 2004. I think he'll have a good race, but he will not win.
